Nick: Last time, we discussed the course for 2026. Today, I want to sharpen the focus: what are we doing with the holidays and all those 'spending weeks'? What do this year's data tell us, and how do we reconcile that with sustainability?
Black Friday & Holidays 2025: What do the numbers say?
Nick: First, the facts. Major analysts do expect growth, but slower than last year. Deloitte predicts the slowest holiday growth in the US since the pandemic (around +2.9% to +3.4% in total retail; e-commerce ~+7–9%), a sign that consumers are becoming more price-sensitive. This helps provide context for Europe/the Netherlands, as that trend usually trickles down.
Emma: So growth, but with the brakes on. Do you see shifts in when people buy?
Nick: Yes. Adobe's 2024 data shows that the season began long before Black Friday , generating record online revenue (Nov–Dec: $241.4 billion online, +8.7% y/y). Cyber Monday reached $13.3 billion (+7.3%), and mobile share continues to rise. That pattern—early deals, longer tail—is the blueprint for 2025.
Fatima: “And Europe?”
Nick: In the UK, online spending around Friday/Central Friday rose by ~5% y/y in 2024; Black Friday itself rose by 7.2% . In the EU-5, McKinsey recently reported stable to flat consumer sentiment (cautious, value-driven). In Germany, France, and Italy, several studies have shown that many consumers are shopping consciously (fewer impulse purchases, focusing on essentials, avoiding returns)
At the same time, Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) is growing during Cyber Week; Adobe predicted record BNPL volumes and a significant mobile contribution in 2024. Expectations are that this will continue in 2025.
Emma: “So campaigns: longer and mobile-first , with BNPL and value-proof messaging.”
Nick: Exactly. And keep an eye on 'promotional inflation': Adobe calculated last year that steep discounts themselves generate additional revenue . But you have to watch your margins .
How long will Black Friday and 'spending weeks' last?
Fatima: "Sometimes it feels like a never-ending discount train . Hasn't Black Friday simply become one long promotional period ?"
Nick: Yes, the season is shifting and extending . Signs: retailers are starting earlier (October teasers) and extending into the New Year; data from 2024 shows more "$4B days" outside the classic peak than the year before. Expectations: 2025/26 will continue this pattern— a longer window, more peak days , omnichannel and mobile centricity.
Emma: “Is Black Friday disappearing?”
Nick: Unlikely in the short term. As long as consumers expect discounts and macro pressure persists, the timing will remain, but less of a 'one-day' and more of a 'season .' Think of spending weeks as a 'calendar cap': retailers diversify risks and inventory, while consumers strive for better timing .
The environmental reality: returns, packaging and logistics
Nick: The ecological bill is the elephant in the room. Studies point to three levers:
Returns : A recent report estimates that e-commerce returns generate up to five times more packaging waste than offline purchases, adding up to ~24 Mt CO₂/year . Reducing returns (better sizing advice/AR, photo reviews, stricter return periods) delivers both impact and margin. packagingeurope.com
Packaging : Literature shows that reusable solutionsreduce the footprint in some scenarios, but that the outcome depends on return logistics, circulation speed, and distance. So: 'fit for purpose' packaging (less air), mono-materials , reusable where logistically sound . ScienceDirect
Awareness is growing : Industry analyses summarize the CO₂ drivers (material, dimensions, last-mile) and point to operational quick wins : right-sizing, bundling, pick-up points, ship-from-store with low-emission last-mile. ” packaging-gateway.com
Emma: So our to-do: fewer returns (size tools, better content) and slimmer packaging . That's also commercially smart.
Nick: Exactly. Smart agencies/partners (think services-as-a-service ) help implement this operationally without derailing the cost curve.
Why do eco-trends seem so short-lived?
Fatima: After the pandemic, everything seemed to shift—more local, less waste—but we still often fall back . How is that possible?
Nick: Behavioral science calls this the attitude-behavior gap : people say they find sustainability important, but often act differently due to price pressure, convenience, or habit. Recent EU studies and updates (including those on fashion) confirm that there are structural barriers : price, friction, limited choice, and unclear impact .
In addition, rebound and sometimes moral licensing effects also play a role: after a single "green" action, consumers unconsciously feel "compensated," leading them to consume more elsewhere (or become less critical). This has been documented in clothing and energy consumption; note that moral licensing isn't found in every study, but rebound is robust.
Emma: “And crisis behavior?”
Nick: Crises sometimes create brief windows of opportunity for increased sustainable behavior (less travel, conscious purchases), but as soon as pressure subsides, routine returns. Research on COVID-19 describes precisely this pendulum effect ; some habits stick, many relapse without structural incentives .
Fatima: “So: without price and convenience incentives it will disappear.”
Nick: “Yes. The policy/market levers that help:
Transparent information and 'default' sustainable choices (choice architecture).
Price incentives (dynamic shipping fees, return costs where appropriate).
Friction removed (size advice, pick-up points with benefits).
Social norm (making visible 'others choose X').
Choice reduction (fewer options = less choice stress and returns).”
What does this mean for your Q4 strategy (and 2026)?
Nick: Let's make it practical. If you want to win this holiday season and reduce your footprint:
Emma: Plan earlier, peak longer. Start with soft drops in October, and build on them until after Christmas. Make mobile your default. Use BNPL consciously, but guard your margin.
Fatima: Sell fewer returns. Invest in size and fit tools , promotional photos, and clear product information; reduce the number of "free and unlimited" returns with smart thresholds and pickup discounts .
Nick: " Packaging on a diet. Right-sized, single-material, and reusable where logistically feasible (subscription/return flow)."
Emma: Campaigns focused on 'value' instead of just 'discounts. ' Combine price with sustainability claims that you can deliver on (repairs, extended lifespan, CO₂-neutral last-mile delivery where feasible). EU consumers say they're buying more consciously —talk to data, not slogans.
Nick: Use AI pragmatically. Let AI handle the heavy lifting (forecasting, personalization, inventory, content creation), but keep the human element in your service. "The future is digital, the connection is human." That's precisely the antidote to AI and promotional fatigue .
